2018 Mid-Year Top-Tier Report
In the Greater Toronto Area (Durham, Halton, Peel, Toronto and York), market confidence and top-tier sales activity renewed in the first half of 2018 as consumer psychology recovered from the April 2017 introduction of the Ontario Fair Housing Plan, particularly within the City of Toronto. Given unprecedented gains in the region’s $1 million-plus sales volume from 2015 to 2017, with surges of 56% in 2015 over 2014, 65% in 2016 over 2015, and 41% in the first half of 2017 over the first half of 2016, year-over-year comparisons of 2018 to 2017 sales activity mask the region’s market resilience. On the surface, $1 million-plus residential real estate sales fell 46% year-over-year in the first half of 2018, while sales over $4 million fell 51%. However, 2018 sales volume trended in line with 2015’s pre-surge levels: GTA $1 million-plus real estate sales in the first half of 2018 increased 25% from the number of units sold in the first half of 2015, while sales over $4 million were up 72%.
Following 20% gains in $1 million-plus sales volume in 2017, the City of Montreal was the only major Canadian city to see year-over-year growth in sales over $1 million in the first half of 2018 with a 24% increase to hit new records. However, there were hints that this momentum will level off in the latter half of 2018.
“The collision of rising mortgage rates, stricter lending guidelines and cascading governmental policies and taxes have impacted the performance of several top-tier Canadian markets,” says Brad Henderson, President and CEO of Sotheby’s International Realty Canada. “While the Toronto top-tier market remained remarkably resilient in the first half of 2018, and Montreal continued to exude growth and confidence, the Vancouver and Calgary markets decelerated as consumer optimism and local purchasing power diminished.”
According to Henderson, erosion of homebuyers’ purchasing power, particularly in the market for real estate below the $2 million threshold, has rechanneled an additional cohort into the top-tier condominium and attached home markets in Toronto and Vancouver, elevating demand and sustaining price gains. Canadian top-tier real estate market highlights included:
TORONTO
Top-tier real estate in the GTA (Durham, Halton, Peel, Toronto and York) reflected remarkable resilience in the first six months of 2018 as consumer confidence and market activity renewed following a lull after the April 2017 implementation of the Ontario Fair Housing Plan.
- The resurgence was masked by comparisons to unprecedented gains in the GTA’s $1 million-plus real estate market from 2015 to 2017. $1 million-plus residential real estate sales (condominiums, attached and single family homes) increased 56% in 2015 over 2014, 65% in 2016 over 2015, then peaked 41% year-over-year at new records in the first half of 2017.
- In contrast, during the first half of 2018, a total of 7,684 properties over $1 million sold in the GTA, a 46% year-over-year drop when compared to 2017’s historic highs, while luxury sales over $4 million declined 51% to 127 units sold.
- In the City of Toronto, 3,526 properties sold over $1 million and 91 properties sold over $4 million during the first half of 2018, a decline of 32% and 52% respectively.
- Despite declines relative to 2017, 2018 sales trended above 2015’s healthy market activity. GTA $1 million-plus real estate sales in the first half of 2018 increased 25% from the 6,152 units sold in the first half of 2015 while sales over $4 million were up 72%.
- Compared to the same period of 2015, sales over $1 million in the City of Toronto were up 14% in the first half of 2018, while sales over $4 million were up 44%.
- Compared to 2017’s historic highs, GTA $1 million-plus and $4 million-plus single family home sales decreased 49% and 52% year-over-year to 6,220 and 116 units respectively. Relative to strong, pre-peak $1 million-plus sales volume in the first half of 2015, GTA single family home sales over $1 million were up 13% while sales over $4 million were up 66%.
- While $1 million-plus attached home sales volume fell 42% compared to 2017 levels, and $4 million-plus sales fell from three to two units sold, activity reflected limited inventory rather than soft demand. 57% of $1 million-plus attached homes sold above list price in the GTA after spending an average of 15 days on the market, the highest percentage of above-list sales and the shortest number of days on market for residential housing types in the $1 million-plus segment.
- Similarly, while GTA condo sales over $1 million fell 13% in the first half of 2018 to 658 units and luxury condo sales over $4 million fell 40% to nine units, 31% of the sales took place above list price. Condo sales velocity stayed in line with the brisk pace experienced in the record-setting first half of 2017, at an average 25 days on the market.
MONTREAL
Following market momentum in 2017 that drove $1 million-plus sales volume up 20% compared to 2016, top-tier sales in the City of Montreal continued at a strong tempo in the first half of 2018, hitting new records and outpacing gains in other major Canadian cities. The market has been driven by strong local demand and has been undeterred by rising interest rates and new mortgage rules by Canada’s federal financial regulator. The city has also been sheltered from provincial and municipal cooling policies that have moderated sales in Toronto and Vancouver.
- Overall $1 million-plus residential real estate sales (condominiums, attached and single family homes) in Montreal experienced a 24% year-over-year increase in the first half of 2018 compared to the year prior, totaling 460 sales. $1 million-plus condominiums led in year-over-year percentage gains of all property categories as sales jumped 25% year-over-year to 81 condominiums sold.
- Multiple bidding wars sparked amongst purchasers, as a result, 14% of $1 million-plus condominiums sold above list price. Montreal’s top-tier attached market surged throughout the first half of 2018, with sales over $1 million increasing 58% year-over-year to 171 units.
- The single family home market saw a 5% increase from the first half of 2017, with 208 units sold in 2018 compared to 199 units sold the same year prior.
Alex Irish
CEO & Team Leader - Sales Representative
Alex Irish has been a leading force in real estate for over thirty years, establishing a reputation as one of Oakville’s most respected and successful realtors. Known for her unwavering work ethic and ethical approach, Alex consistently ranks among the top producers in the industry.
Her commitment to client satisfaction is unparalleled, exemplified by her signature concierge service that ensures each client receives personalized and dedicated attention. In late 2016, Alex embraced a new chapter as the Team Leader of Alex Irish & Associates, where she could uphold the high standards of service that have defined her career.
In 2024, Alex expanded her team’s reach by merging with the Regan team to create Regan Irish & Associates, forming a dynamic new firm that blends the strengths of both businesses. This partnership not only enhances their services but also provides clients with greater resources and an expanded network, all while preserving the personal, relationship-driven approach that clients have come to trust.
Alex’s insights on real estate trends are highly sought after, and she has been featured in prominent publications such as the New York Times and Globe & Mail. A certified luxury marketing specialist, she has received numerous accolades throughout her career and frequently speaks at industry conferences.
Every February, Alex and her team at Regan Irish & Associates participate in the Kindness Tour, a tradition launched in 2017. During this month-long initiative, the entire team supports 28 local charities, embodying the company’s commitment to community. In recognition of their efforts, they were nominated for a Community Spirit Award.
At the heart of Alex’s philosophy is the belief in “doing ordinary things extraordinarily well.” She is deeply committed to building lifelong client relationships and takes pride in mentoring a dedicated team of agents while continuing to actively sell real estate.
Related Posts
Rate Cut Ignites GTA Real Estate
Market Snapshot
The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) September 2025 Market Watch report shows early signs of a GTA rebound.
- 5,592 sales, up 8.5% YoY
- 19,260 new listings, +4% YoY
- Average price ≈ $1,059,377, down 4.7% YoY
- MLS® HPI ↓ 5.5% YoY
- Sales up MoM, listings down MoM → tighter market forming
These numbers point to a slow but steady market recovery. But what’s really fueling the conversation now is the Bank of Canada’s latest decision.
Bank of Canada’s October 2025 Interest Rate Decision
On October 29 2025, the Bank of Canada cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% — the second consecutive cut and the lowest level since 2022.
The Bank signaled that this may mark the end of its easing cycle unless inflation weakens further.
Why it matters:
- Borrowing costs drop, boosting affordability for buyers.
- Confidence returns to sellers and investors after months of hesitation.
- Refinancing and investment opportunities reopen for savvy property owners.
In short, this move has re-energized housing markets across Toronto, Mississauga, Oakville, Burlington, and even Muskoka, where buyers and investors had been waiting for the right signal.
What Buyers Should Do Now
- Act strategically: With rates lower and listings up, this is a golden moment to negotiate.
- Get pre-approved quickly — competition could ramp up by early 2026.
- Focus on quality locations like south Oakville, Lorne Park (Mississauga), and core Burlington — where long-term equity growth outperforms.
- For investors: Explore Muskoka vacation homes or rental-ready units before rising demand drives prices back up.
What Sellers Should Know
- Sales are rising despite lower average prices — buyers are re-entering the market.
- Presentation and pricing are everything. Professional staging, premium photography, and data-backed pricing attract serious offers.
- Upsizing or downsizing? With lower mortgage costs, you can move equity efficiently while conditions remain favourable.
- Luxury sellers: Demand for turnkey listings is picking up again — especially in Oakville and Mississauga.
Local Insights
Mississauga & Oakville: Still among the GTA’s most resilient sub-markets. Expect balanced conditions through Q4 2025.
Burlington: Family buyers are back — affordability plus lifestyle make it a top performer.
Toronto: Core condos are stabilizing; investors are returning to well-located downtown units.
Muskoka: Cottage and short-term rental demand remains strong — ideal for diversification and passive-income seekers.
Investor Takeaway
With the policy rate at 2.25% and inflation under control, investment real estate looks compelling again. Expect:
- Better cash-flow margins with cheaper financing
- Gradual price stabilization through 2026
- Long-term upside as population growth and housing supply constraints persist
What To Do Next
- Buyers: Review your mortgage options now — lenders are updating rates.
- Sellers: Get a current market evaluation to plan your listing window.
- Investors: Compare cap rates and projected yields across GTA vs Muskoka.
Need a strategy tailored to your goals? Let’s make your next move your smartest yet.
About Regan Irish & Associates
We specialize in luxury homes, resale properties, and investment real estate across the GTA and Muskoka. Our team’s market insight and negotiation expertise deliver results — whether you’re upsizing, downsizing, or investing.
1320 Cornwall Rd Unit 103, Oakville ON L6J 7W5
905-842-7677
reganirish.com
Call to Action
The market has shifted — don’t wait for the crowd.
Contact Regan Irish & Associates today for a personalized market plan that helps you buy, sell or invest with confidence in Mississauga, Oakville, Toronto, Burlington or Muskoka.
FALL MARKET KICKOFF: September 2025 Real Estate Market Update
As summer winds down, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) real estate market is shifting once again—this time with an important boost from the Bank of Canada’s recent interest rate cut. On September 17, 2025, the Bank lowered its policy interest rate to 2.5%, marking a significant move that is expected to reinvigorate buying activity across the region.
Market Snapshot: August 2025 (TRREB)
According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), August brought encouraging signs of stability:
- Sales: 6,232 transactions across the GTA, a 4.6% increase from August 2024.
- New Listings: 13,119, down slightly year-over-year, helping balance supply.
- Average Selling Price: $982,880, nearly flat compared to last year (+0.4%).
- Trend: Balanced conditions are giving both buyers and sellers room to maneuver, with the recent rate cut expected to stimulate fall demand.
City & Regional Highlights
Toronto 
Toronto continues to see steady demand for condos and townhomes, appealing to buyers looking for affordability in the core. Detached homes are moving more cautiously, but price stability suggests confidence returning to the market.
Mississauga 
Mississauga remains a buyer-friendly market, especially in the detached and semi-detached segments. With borrowing costs easing, families upsizing or relocating may find strong value in the fall.
Oakville 
Luxury demand in Oakville is regaining traction. The combination of limited inventory and lower financing costs positions this market for an active fall season, especially for executive homes and lakefront properties.
Burlington 
Burlington continues to attract buyers migrating west from Toronto. The city’s blend of affordability, lifestyle, and community feel has kept prices steady and competitive.
Muskoka 
Cottage country remains strong, with buyers eyeing investment properties and second homes. While activity softened slightly through the summer, the rate drop could encourage more buyers to act before year-end.
What This Means for Buyers & Sellers
With interest rates now at their lowest level in two years, affordability is improving across the GTA and Muskoka. Buyers who were waiting on the sidelines are expected to re-enter the market this fall, while sellers may benefit from increased competition for well-priced homes.
At Regan Irish & Associates, we specialize in helping clients navigate market shifts with confidence. Whether you’re buying a luxury home, selling a family property, or investing in Muskoka, our market insight and negotiation expertise ensure you get the best results.
1320 Cornwall Rd Unit 103, Oakville, ON L6J 7W5
905.842.7677
Visit reganirish.com——
August 2025 GTA Real Estate Market Update | Regan Irish
The August 2025 GTA Real Estate Market Update reflects renewed momentum and affordability in Toronto, Oakville, Mississauga, Burlington, and Muskoka. Thanks to steady interest rates and appealing home prices, July proved surprisingly dynamic. Let’s dig into the numbers and what they mean for you.
Interest Rates Remain Stable — Affordability Fueling Activity
In July 2025, the Bank of Canada maintained its key rate at 2.75%, its third consecutive pause. With lower borrowing costs now more accessible, affordability is encouraging a wave of renewed buyer activity.
GTA Market Overview: Sales Surge, Prices Slightly Dip
- Home Sales: 6,100+ transactions region-wide, marking a 10.9% increase YoY and the strongest July since 2021.
- Month-over-Month: Seasonally adjusted sales rose 13% from June to approximately 5,744 units, the biggest monthly gain in nine months.
- New Listings: Up 5.7% YoY, totaling 17,613 new offers.
- Price Trends:
- The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark fell 5.4% YoY.
- The average GTA selling price dropped 5.5% YoY to around $1,051,719.
- Word on the street indicates the HPI drifted slightly lower—about $979,000, down 0.2% from June.
What It Adds Up To: Buyers are back in force—sales are outpacing new listings while prices softened, creating renewed market opportunities.
City Highlights
Toronto
A more balanced landscape—but some segments remain soft. Condos and detached homes see inventory rising; semis are steadier.
Oakville, Mississauga, Burlington & Muskoka
While TRREB doesn’t break down by city in these reports, regional trends suggest:
- Mississauga & Burlington: Strong rise in listings and dipping average prices give buyers leverage.
- Oakville: Stability in demand for luxury keeps discounts modest.
- Muskoka: Continued strong interest in sub-$2M waterfront properties should benefit from broader GTA momentum.
What This Means for You
- For Buyers:
Renewed affordability, rising inventory, and favorable interest rates make August a prime time to move. - For Sellers:
A more balanced market—strategic pricing and quick response will be key to success. - For Investors & Cottage Buyers:
Strong July sales in the GTA point to increasing investor interest; Muskoka remains a high-value lifestyle and investment destination.
Work With the GTA Real Estate Experts
Whether you’re planning to buy a Muskoka cottage, invest in a luxurious Oakville property, or explore options across Toronto, Mississauga, or Burlington, now is the time to act.
Regan Irish & Associates specializes in luxury, resale, and investment properties across the GTA and Muskoka. Our market insight and negotiation skills help you get the best results—whether buying, selling, or investing.
1320 Cornwall Rd Unit 103, Oakville, ON L6J 7W5
905.842.7677
Visit reganirish.com
Let’s make today’s market your opportunity—contact us today!